The Numbers Don't Lie. But What Story Do They Tell?

Twelve septillion. That's a 12 followed by 24 zeros. That's the statistical support Dr. Susan Greenspoon gave the jury today for Christine Banfield's blood being on the fitted sheet in her own bedroom.

Let me say that again. The state's DNA expert told twelve Fairfax County jurors that Christine Banfield's blood was found on her own bedsheet, and the odds of it being someone else's blood are basically zero.

And when she finished delivering number after number, each one more astronomically certain than the last, the defense had no questions.

Not one.

What the Numbers Actually Prove

Here's what Dr. Greenspoon established today:

Christine Banfield and Joseph Ryan's DNA were found mixed together on the fitted sheet. On the knife handle. On the bed frame. Christine's DNA was on her husband Brendan's coat at 18 billion times statistical support. Both victims' DNA appeared in stain after stain, location after location.

The prosecution needed to prove that two people died violently in that bedroom. Mission accomplished. Nobody is disputing that Christine Banfield was stabbed to death and Joseph Ryan was shot. The crime scene photos already told that story. The medical examiner already told that story. Now the DNA confirms what everyone already knew: there was blood everywhere, and it belonged to the two people who died.

But here's what the numbers don't prove: who killed them.

The Prosecution's Theory and its DNA Problem

The state says Brendan Banfield orchestrated this entire thing. Created a fake profile on a fetish website using his wife's name. Lured Joseph Ryan to the house under false pretenses. Then killed them both and staged it to look like a home invasion.

If that's true, today's testimony is devastating. Christine's blood on Brendan's coat? That's the husband covered in his wife's blood after allegedly stabbing her to death. The mixture of both victims' blood on multiple surfaces? That's the crime scene of a double homicide he allegedly planned.

But Brendan Banfield has always admitted he was there. He's always admitted he shot Joseph Ryan. His story from day one has been that he came home, found a stranger attacking his wife, and shot the attacker in self-defense.

If that's true, today's testimony proves nothing the defense disputes. Of course Christine's blood was on the sheet. She was stabbed to death in that bed. Of course both victims' blood was on the knife. Ryan allegedly used it to kill her. Of course blood got on Brendan's coat. He was in the room trying to save his wife from a knife-wielding attacker.

See the problem?

Why the Defense Stayed Silent

John Carroll didn't ask Dr. Greenspoon a single question. Some people will see that as surrender. I see it as strategy.

What was he going to challenge? The science is sound. TrueAllele probabilistic genotyping is peer-reviewed and court-accepted. Dr. Greenspoon has 24 years of experience and has testified over 60 times. The numbers are what they are.

More importantly, the defense doesn't need to challenge the DNA. They need to challenge the story the prosecution is building around it.

The DNA says blood was found in certain places. The prosecution says that blood got there because Brendan Banfield murdered two people. The defense says that blood got there because Brendan Banfield tried to stop a murder and shot the murderer.

Same blood. Same locations. Two completely different stories.

Asking Dr. Greenspoon questions just gives her more time in front of the jury, more opportunities to repeat those massive numbers, more chances for "septillion" and "octillion" to echo in jurors' minds. Better to let her step down and save the fight for witnesses who can actually be challenged.

What This Means Going Forward

The prosecution has now built their forensic foundation. Blood evidence? Established. DNA confirmation? Delivered. The crime scene is locked in.

But this case was never going to be won or lost on DNA. Everyone agrees two people died violently in that bedroom. The question is why.

The real battle is coming. Juliana Peres Magalhães, the au pair who was in the house that morning, has pleaded guilty and agreed to testify against Brendan. She's the one who will tell the jury about the alleged affair. About the catfishing scheme. About what she says Brendan told her.

That's where the defense will make their stand. Not against septillions and octillions, but against a woman who's getting time served in exchange for her testimony. A woman who changed her story. A woman whose credibility the defense will try to destroy.

The DNA can't tell the jury whether Brendan Banfield is a cold-blooded killer or a traumatized husband who shot the man attacking his wife. Only the witnesses can do that.

And that's where this trial gets interesting.

▶️ WATCH NOW DNA Expert Tells Jury Both Victims' Blood Was on Husband's Coat in Au Pair Murder Trial

Brendan Banfield is presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. The state has the burden. We're watching to see if they meet it.